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Will it be machinegun buyer's market?


maxfaxdude
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Assume the following to be true:

1-If you could afford a machinegun you were not hurting financially.

2.There is a fixed number of MGs that are transferable.

3. When I die my wife doesn't have any interest in MGs.

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its been a buyers market for 2 years!!

 

im hoping it gets even better as there's another id like.

 

most sellers cant accept the current prices, let alone it dropping further....i think there will be a lot of sellers, but no buyers at the current asking prices...look on sturm or GB...very,very few ever sell. most just list for $5-8,000 over value and they never sell.

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I think the people that buy and sell on Sturm and Subguns (gunspot) are mostly MG dealers and advanced collectors who know and understand the market... I don't think their prices are going to change that much, if at all. They have a vested interested in keeping the value of their guns higher as well as the capital to wait out a slump in the market. I think where you are going to find great deals is on local markets and at small local class III gun shops. The guys that will be in a hurry to sell are going to be the guys that have one or two MGs sitting in the closet that they bought back in the 80's or 90's. Or perhaps people who inherited a couple MG's and they have just been waiting for the motivation to sell... Or maybe the one guy who spent his 401K on a couple MG's and does not have a lot of reserve capital to make it through a financial recession. Few of those people even know that Sturm or Subguns even exists.

 

I think a lot of these MG's are going to make their way into the inventory of the big MG dealers... I think we are going to see their inventories expand over the next year or two, but their prices aren't going to come down.

 

Keep an eye on your local dealers and gun shows.

 

Just my $0.02

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I picked up a nice WH1928 Thompson a few months ago from my local SOT. Ugly divorce and a customer needed cash fast. He was asking $22k. I waited a while and got it for $15k. With it came a paratrooper case, 40 magazines (half new and unused), 3 L drums, form 4's from prior owners, and some small parts.

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Stocks will remain weak until the 40% of stocks that were sold were buybacks, and they come back to inflate the numbers again.....that's going to be quite a while. Many of those companies took loans to do so. The pandemic is socialism, you get a check and you get a check and you get a check and then those we pick will not get a check. The flu thing is at a fraction of opioid mortality rates and influnenza numbers. Fraud is running rampant.

 

As to MG prices, was a sten tube built into a sterling ever worth more than 10K? As I see it the good stuff is still good and will remain tucked away until an estate sale forces it out and there will be some deals but no one I know with nice collections is in any position to be forced to sell at steep discounts. Commodity items (like Thompsons and sterlings/stens) will drop late summer as the checks are cut back and unemployment is still high.

The "big" MG dealers aren't that big, and some are knee deep in inventory at what could have high basis costs relative to selling prices two months out? Another big dealer has virtually no inventory, that was probably a safe bet even though the margins are slimmer.

 

I'm still buying, but prices have been highly inflated for quite a while so pickens have been slim. I did add a lot of nice items between 2009 and about 2014, so we'll see what happens. I did a couple auctions over the weekend, lets just say some people did not get the memo yet? Prices were sky high. Out of 40K of stuff I bid on I ended up with a $120 part, but that's OK, stuff will be cheaper next week!

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Stocks will remain weak until the 40% of stocks that were sold were buybacks, and they come back to inflate the numbers again.....that's going to be quite a while. Many of those companies took loans to do so. The pandemic is socialism, you get a check and you get a check and you get a check and then those we pick will not get a check. The flu thing is at a fraction of opioid mortality rates and influnenza numbers. Fraud is running rampant.

 

As to MG prices, was a sten tube built into a sterling ever worth more than 10K? As I see it the good stuff is still good and will remain tucked away until an estate sale forces it out and there will be some deals but no one I know with nice collections is in any position to be forced to sell at steep discounts. Commodity items (like Thompsons and sterlings/stens) will drop late summer as the checks are cut back and unemployment is still high.

The "big" MG dealers aren't that big, and some are knee deep in inventory at what could have high basis costs relative to selling prices two months out? Another big dealer has virtually no inventory, that was probably a safe bet even though the margins are slimmer.

 

I'm still buying, but prices have been highly inflated for quite a while so pickens have been slim. I did add a lot of nice items between 2009 and about 2014, so we'll see what happens. I did a couple auctions over the weekend, lets just say some people did not get the memo yet? Prices were sky high. Out of 40K of stuff I bid on I ended up with a $120 part, but that's OK, stuff will be cheaper next week!

 

I have to agree with all that you said above. And good things will come to those who wait...both in the stock market and the machinegun market.

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  • 2 months later...

Last 2 years you can see prices for MG dip. Wish I got more many years ago.

 

Just keep your eye out.. good prices are popping up. I bought a couple more though only one of the 2 I bought was a deal. In the long run I would say prices would go up since as time goes on, they become more scarce due to wear and tear or loss or destruction.

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Everything said is true, but - just look at auction pricing for the last couple big auction house events. Somebody has money. Now, they are not buying M11/9s, but still, some very high prices being paid. A low priced 21 Colt that is not selling is that for a reason.

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With the stock market crash, Corona virus pandemic and mass unemployment, it should be a machinegun buyer's market for the next year or 2.

 

Not if they bought Tesla or Amazon stock :)

Eric

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