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Slow machinegun sales and price declines


maxfaxdude
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Two words: transfer time. Everybody's sick of shelling out the price of a new car, or more, to buy an MG then having to wait 9-10 months, or more, for BATFE to get its head out of its bureaucratic ass. Combine that with the spectre of a recession looming on the horizon and people are going to sit on their money.

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Cost/benefit ratio is out of whack. People are waking up to the fact that, for practical purposes, a semiautomatic AR is just as effective as a full-automatic M16. Maybe more effective, since it wastes less ammunition.

 

The main justification for a full automatic is as a collectible. But there you come up against the "greater fool" theory. A speculative bubble. How high can prices go before it becomes a "Tulip Mania" where the inevitable result is a price collapse?

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A lot of mismatched, refinished junk was put together and sold for big bucks that I wouldn't have anything to do with. I always wondered who would buy it all. Nice, all original items still sell quite well. Some of the very nicest never even make it to a for-sale listing or auction floor. They're sold in quiet deals to well heeled buyers with little or no haggling.

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All of your comments make sense but original non refinished guns will always be in demand and bring the best prices.What i am really concerned about is the abundance of nut cases that continue to shoot up schools. That could put the $200 visa comment at the top of the list?

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Cost/benefit ratio is out of whack. People are waking up to the fact that, for practical purposes, a semiautomatic AR is just as effective as a full-automatic M16. Maybe more effective, since it wastes less ammunition.

 

The main justification for a full automatic is as a collectible. But there you come up against the "greater fool" theory. A speculative bubble. How high can prices go before it becomes a "Tulip Mania" where the inevitable result is a price collapse?

Maybe, maybe not? There has been a collectibles market since the first smart caveman carved up the first nice club that wouldn't slip out of your hand, they became popular and in demand. Prices on everything fluctuate with economic prosperity. Firearms are tangible and most owners hold them long term, it's not like the stock market where nothing is tangible, the value is artificial, and almost no one holds long term and has every intent to flip it for more. Personally I think prices are pretty high, but since I've been in it for a long time and recall what it was 20 years ago my view is quite biased. Without that baseline my frame of reference would be different like some of my friends who think prices are not that high?

 

Wait time is a huge deterrent. I'd buy 3 more suppressors tomorrow if I could get them in a couple months. I've thought about another SOT, but the quick turn around is then offset by wasted audit times that I don't have time for currently.

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There will always be a market for the best. Shooter grade guns may flatten or even decline in price but the 95% original C&R guns will continue to climb (unless the government changes something). Buy what you like and can afford and look at it as a hobby, not an investment and you'll sleep much better

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Cost/benefit ratio is out of whack. People are waking up to the fact that, for practical purposes, a semiautomatic AR is just as effective as a full-automatic M16. Maybe more effective, since it wastes less ammunition.

 

The main justification for a full automatic is as a collectible. But there you come up against the "greater fool" theory. A speculative bubble. How high can prices go before it becomes a "Tulip Mania" where the inevitable result is a price collapse?

There is now an unlimited supply of tulips.

 

They stopped making transferables in 1986. So the supply is fixed.

 

Encouraging is that in the last debate some of the heavy hitters were wanting to emulate an NFA action on semi-autos not a complete ban.

IE they are OK with the current NFA requirements and not going for a complete ban.

But none of them have an actual plan that is somewhat realistic.

Lets be honest and say our 2nd amendment right were permanently watered down years ago...hence the NFA rules and registration.

 

But with them its all about emotion, electability and screw the actual facts.

Edited by lightguy
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  • 2 weeks later...

Did anyone read the article about ATF taking $750,000 dollars of bump stocks ? the manufactures went to federal court to seek compensation for them. The federal judge ruled against their suit stating that the bump stocks were classified as machine guns and the taking of them was within the scope of ATF and that machine guns and bump stocks were not protected by the 2nd amendment.

it's possible I may have missed something in the article but it sounded to me that he was putting machine guns on the list that can be confiscated also. I think I saw this on Guns America news feed that I received as an e-mail.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4750

Edited by wv1928
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Did anyone read the article about ATF taking $750,000 dollars of bump stocks ? the manufactures went to federal court to seek compensation for them. The federal judge ruled against their suit stating that the bump stocks were classified as machine guns and the taking of them was within the scope of ATF and that machine guns and bump stocks were not protected by the 2nd amendment.

it's possible I may have missed something in the article but it sounded to me that he was putting machine guns on the list that can be confiscated also. I think I saw this on Guns America

 

 

 

 

Sorry this got posted twice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4750

Edited by wv1928
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