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#1 DDAYJune6

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Posted 20 February 2004 - 10:57 PM

ok, I have enough money right now to buy a kahr thompson. Im only 18. Should i buy it or wait and save for a full auto?

P.S. - Im planning on getting a "commando" if i do
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#2 John Jr

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Posted 20 February 2004 - 11:43 PM

By the year 2006-2007 full auto Thompsons will be 12K for West Hurley guns or more. Others will be higher, could be a lot higher. Start saving and don't waste money on stupid things like cars. The best thing to do would be to get your parents to put up the money to buy one now before they go up in price. You might offer to pay them back when you are 21 with 10% simple interest. This rate is much higher than a CD and you get to shoot the gun for a few years before you take possession. If you cant pull this off, then buy the commando and get PK to make it work before you ever shoot it.

8K Westie today. Put up $1,000 of your own money now and this leaves you with a 7K debt. Pay your parents 10% for one year and this comes to $700. Pay them this for 2 more years (or until you are 21). Say this is another $1,400. Total cost of the gun would be 8K plus $2,200 in interest and you have 10.2K in the gun. You are making money and you get to shoot the gun when you visit your parents. $700 per year plus enough to pay the principle at 21 given 3 years means you willl have to save about $260 per month. This is assuming you can get your parents to buy a Westie for 8K today, you put up 1000 of your own cash and pay them $260 per month until you are 21.

Or you can buy a semi auto gun that probably wont work and will require that you fix it till it does.

I think I have spent enough time on this post. Hell, I am not even sure it even adds up.

Oh well,

John Jr


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#3 DDAYJune6

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Posted 20 February 2004 - 11:58 PM

that would be nice, but i doubt it would ever happen.

right now I have about a grand saved and I have only been saving for about a month and a half. I still live with my parents and prob will when I start college this fall. I work at Kmart, kinda shity but it gets me through the week with enought to save a little. I really havent made up my mind yet but im thinking to keep saving, then when i actually get it i'll have something to be proud of, have fun with, and something that will always increase in value.
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#4 Walter63a

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 12:04 AM

Sounds like an excellent plan DDJune6! biggrin.gif Good luck!! smile.gif Regards, Walter

P.S. I would second John, Jr's advice on not being sucked into buying expensive cars (they generally end up on a scrap heap relatively sooner than a TSMG, they lose value quickly, etc). Also, don't be too distracted by girls, in your studies and your savings plan for the TSMG! cool.gif
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#5 DC Chris

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 12:35 AM

KMart is a start - nothing wrong with that... or your goal.

Work your ass off in college - take it seriously but have fun when needed (read - don't let fun take over why you are there! smile.gif ) .

Get a marketable degree (computers are a good thing) and buy what you can afford after a few years of working, before the wife, kids, mortgage, etc come into play.

You can always start (when you turn 21) with a 1927 or a nice 1911 pistol until the $$$ rolls in after you get that degree. Remember, it is technically illegal for your parents to straw purchase that firearm for you. Not trying to burst your bubble, but you do have to swear that the purchase is for you and not someone else when doing the paperwork - even for a Kahr.

John - I would disagree. Some vendors are already asking for over $12K for a WH and its only Feburary 2004.

Chris

Edited by DC Chris, 21 February 2004 - 12:48 AM.

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#6 John Jr

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 09:04 AM

You can still pick up West Hurleys for around that price. Asking prices and taking prices are two different things.

Jr
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#7 Hurridale

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 10:29 AM

DDay,

Nobody can predict the future of collectibles, but if you look at the increases in selling prices for non-Westy 21's and 28's over the past two years, they have slowed considerably. I'll bet that if you extrapolate the selling prices for non-Westies over the last ten years and project into the next ten, you would be way too high. There seems to be a ceiling of $17,000 or so that has remained there over the past year and a half.

That is NOT true of the Westies or M1s, nor is it true of the MAC10/11. MACs have doubled over the same time period, and Westies and M1s have crossed into 5 digit prices. It seems people still have money for these less-expensive guns, but are choosing to put their money into something else when it comes to guns approaching $20k, such as non-Westy Thompsons (probably going into stock investments, with the market recovering).

My point is that a non-Westy may not be as unreachable as you think.

Also remember that you don't have to raise enough MONEY to buy one. You only need to raise enough CREDIT (I know very few people who bought their cars and homes with outright cash). My two cents is that you get some cards now and start building a good credit history, then you'll be in a spot to get a loan when you're ready.

Sure, credit cards and loans are dangerous, and can get you into a lot of trouble. Most people just don't have the discipline to use them wisely. (Funny, those are the same arguments anti-gunners use against guns!). Used responsibily, they can make more things possible than if you were just saving on your own.

I wouldn't get the '27 you're thinking about. At $1,000, it's about 6.5% of what I'd sell my Savage for. Keep saving.

Cars are a money trap (at your age, insurance is outrageous!). If you get a nice car now, you can pretty much forget that Tommy. Same is true for romance (the best romance shouldn't cost you anything, anyway!).

I wish I'd had your insight and determination when I was your age!

Best of luck,
DC
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#8 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 11:03 AM

Hurridale,
I think you have it all backwards. During the last year, Colt Thompson's have risen in prices by 25% and WWII 1928's have increased at least $3K to 5$K in the last two years. We already know that these prices are being paid. To say that prices have slowed down is to misinterpret the recent incredibly rapid increase,(somewat superficialy created), over a short period of time, as compared to the gradual rise in Class III weapons over the last 10 years. Nobody is paying $10K or more for WH's at this time, even if there are some sellers attempting to poll vault over that figure. The reason Mac 10's have risen in price is because they were the cheapest NFA gun out there. Even though they are just stamped metal parts, they are an attractive alternative for someone who just wants a bullet hose for a couple grand. People paying $10K for H&K sears are deranged. A high tide may raise all boats, but that doesn't mean that a dingy (WH) won't be skuttled in high seas.


QUOTE
Asking prices and taking prices are two different things.


John J,
I keep hearing this, but in actual application this aphorism, when applied to Class III weapons, means that the seller may negotiate $1000 for every $10,000. How does that get an asking price of $10,000 down to $7000? or an asking price of $22,000 down to $17,000?

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#9 Hurridale

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 11:43 AM

QUOTE (Arthur Fliegenheimer @ Feb 21 2004, 11:03 AM)
Hurridale,
I think you have it all backwards. During the last year, Colt Thompson's have risen in prices by 25% and WWII 1928's have increased at least $3K to 5$K in the last two years. We already know that these prices are being paid. To say that prices have slowed down is to misinterpret the recent incredibly rapid increase,(somewat superficialy created), over a short period of time, as compared to the gradual rise in Class III weapons over the last 10 years.  Nobody is paying $10K or more for WH's at this time, even if there are some sellers attempting to poll vault over that figure. The reason Mac 10's have risen in price is  because they were the cheapest NFA gun out there. Even though they are just stamped metal parts, they are an attractive alternative for someone who just wants a bullet hose for a couple grand. People paying $10K for H&K sears are deranged. .



Arthur,

Please let me know where you are shopping, as I will be putting up my Savage for sale soon and would like top-dollar. The sites I hang out at (sturmgewehr, gunbroker, and subguns, mostly) don't show anywhere close to the increases you mention.

Here are a couple of links to illustrate my point. Keep moving forward in the relisted auctions, which list high bid prices. It can be useful getting a feel for what the market is doing. Note these auctions go back to December.
http://www.gunbroker...p?Item=14176454
http://www.gunbroker...p?Item=14243142

If during "the past year, Colt Thompson's have risen in prices 25%", as you claim, and assuming the current market value of a Colt is $18,000, then that means that a year ago, that Colt sold for $14,400. Now, I have no doubt that a year ago, a Colt at $14.4k would have been snapped up, but these $18k Colts don't seem to be moving very quickly.

If you think that current market price for a Colt is $15,000, then that means that a year ago it would have gone for $12,000. I sure don't recall any being advertised at that.

I agree with you entirely about the MACs and bullet hoses. As for how "deranged" those H&K sear guys are, to each his own. They think it's crazy to pay Colt prices for a gun that becomes a safe queen due to fear of actually using it. It's their trip; I won't criticize them for it.

Again, please let me know where I can sell my Savage for $3k to $5k more than I paid for it two years ago. The baby needs new shoes!

Regards,
DC

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#10 Sgt. Fox

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 11:50 AM

I have two Kahr thompsons that I wouldn't trade for anything else in the semi-auto world. A number of people have had major problems with their Kahrs, but both of mine have worked flawlessly. Perhaps the newer models are of a slightly higher quality?

Anyways, I would reccomend getting a Kahr if you're just looking for something fun to shoot and show off at the range. If you're looking for an investment or something to keep under your bed and pull out occasionaly to look at, by all means save up for another 8 years and get a classic full-auto. wink.gif

Edited by Sgt. Fox, 21 February 2004 - 11:52 AM.

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#11 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 12:04 PM

Hurridale,
You have got to be kidding! You are using Vito's POS gun as an example of Colt prices? Where have you been? Even his 70% condition gun had a bidder go $18,500. Just because Vito wants $21K for it does not mean that real 90% conditon Colt's are not routinely selling for way over $20K now. A year ago 90% Colt TSMG's were selling for $18K to $22K, depending on accessories. Now a 90% gun alone is $22K. There are many examples of these sales posted on this board for you to reference. Savage 1928's were selling for $12K a year ago. Now they sell for $15K. So the other 1928 on gunbroker is a couple g's higher. I think you need to do a broader sampling of real quality pieces in the market place than those. Come on....

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#12 Hurridale

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 12:21 PM

Arthur,

Again, please just tell where I can find these wonderful prices and increases you mention. I am quite willing to sell my gun for as much as I can get for it. The guns I listed were for illustration of the market only.

I asked you for some specific information. You responded with a lack of precision and without answering the question. Not only that, you've changed what we were talking about from a Colt Thompson to now "including accessories". At 25% increase for your hypothetical $22,000 gun, that means that a year ago, that gun without "accessories" was $17,600. That means that there was a range of between $400 and $4400 worth of accessories. (And that, of course, assumes that those accessories have not increased in value.)

$17,600 for a 90% Colt sounds more like a contemporary deal, not $22,000.

As you write, "Come on..."

Respectfully,
DC
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#13 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 12:45 PM

Hurridale,
You based your conclusions on what the market is for Colt and Savage 1928 guns by those two Gunbroker adds. Using your own examples, I think you proved my point. If you consider that someone was willing to pay $18.5K for Vito's 70% tricolor Thompson, then what else needs to be said about how the values have risen since last year at this time? Here are documented sales of Colt's from the past year not including any accessories:

Colt 1921 AC, sold 2/03 for $20K
Colt 1927, sold 9/03 for $22.5K
Colt 1921 AC, sold 11/03 for $24K
Colt 1921 A, sold 1/04 for $20K
Colt 1921 A, sold 10/03 for $26K
Colt 1927, sold 10/03 for $24K
Colt 1921 AC, sold 10/03 $26K
M1A1, sold 10/03 $16K

I can provide more, but I'm hoping you get the idea. But please tell me where there is this repository of 90%+ Colt's selling for $18K that is not some friendship deal?

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#14 Hurridale

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 01:18 PM

Arthur,

Sorry, but you need to look at YOUR numbers. You list five 21A/ACs (to minimize comparing apples to oranges). Here how the prices break down, chronologically:

Colt 1921 AC, sold 2/03 for $20K
Colt 1921 A, sold 10/03 for $26K
Colt 1921 AC, sold 10/03 $26K
Colt 1921 AC, sold 11/03 for $24K
Colt 1921 A, sold 1/04 for $20K

January 04 is the same as February 03. YOUR data shows a spike, then slide. The two guns closest to a year apart are the exact same price (which also includes the most recent sale you listed). Even if that January 04 guns sells this November for $24k, it will be the same price as a comparative piece a year earlier (using your numbers). A good move for the owner of that particular gun, but using YOUR data, does not reflect an annual increase for the market as a whole.

Three of your buyers may be looking at that January 04 gun and thinking that they paid too much.

My original post dealt with predicting Thompson costs so DDay could better plan. If you claim that Thompsons are currently selling for $23.2 k (the mean value of the 21's you listed above), and that they are increasing at 25% per year, then after three years, poor DDay is looking at paying $45.3k for a Colt by the time he turns 21.

Now, that's kind of a warm fuzzy for me with a Colt in the safe, but I'm really not thinking it's going to jump like that.

Once again, will you please tell me where you're getting such great prices (speaking as a seller)? Where would you, who obviously are so knowledgeable, put a British-stamped Savage US1928A1 for sale to get the maximum price?

Do you expect the Savage will again increase $3 to $5k in the next two years?

Regards,
DC


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#15 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 01:39 PM

Hurridale,
I never said that just because in the last crazy year there was a 25% up swing that this was going to contine adinfinitum. But even if they only go up another $1000 a year for the next three years, then poor DDay will be looking at a minimum of $25K for a decent Colt TSMG when he hits legal drinking age. But in another three years, WH's might be routinely selling for $10K. Your 1928 Savage might bring $15K today. The surest way to tell is to put it up for sale on the boards and find out. What did you pay for it and how long ago?

Regardless of the discrepencies in prices on Colt's over the last year, whether they started at $18K and went as high as $26K, your $18K figure as the current market selling price for 90% Colt's is woefully obsolete. They may not increase at that silly pace, but they are also not going backwards either.

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#16 Hurridale

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 01:49 PM

Arthur,

Agreed. Still, to answer my question yet again, where do you recommend I try to sell my Savage to get the most for it?

I've had it for two years. I paid a price that I was satisfied with.

Regards,
DC
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#17 SecondAmend

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 02:00 PM

Unfortunately, gotta side with Arthur on this debate. I say unfortunately because I'd like to own a '21 but it doesn't look like I ever will. The three 90% '21 AC's Jerry Prasser had at $19,500 each about a month ago were gone in three days.

In any case, condition plays a big factor in any high buck collectible item. Just watch a few episodes of "Antiques Road Show" to see how a refinsh job, no matter how well done, can torpedo a value. As a current TSMG example, longmountain has had the refinish '28 West Hurley at $8,500 for months. Meanwhile, other '28 WH's have gone for $9K+ .

Hurridale, you did, a few posts back, brought out the psychological barrier effect. Looks like people balk at a $10K '28 Westie today. On the other hand, Nick at Western seems to be moving M1/M1A1's at over $14K. We'll see if the $25K '21 is a barrier with the J.C. Devine auction prices.

At any rate, at least an overpriced Thompson (or MP-40) is easier to store than an overpriced '60's muscle car.
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#18 colt21a

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 02:00 PM

hey d.c.you know what you want then sell it...........whats with all the ya-da ya-da with arthur???

you know what you paid and i am sure you know what you feel what you will be comfortable with........a buddy of mine sold a 21ac 98% about two years ago for 18,500.00 he paid about 5,600.00 for it...........

then he say's to me at s.a.r.show in phx. oh!!man !! i could shoulda got 25,000.00 for it............that was then,then is now.......he sold it two years ago,if we do not need money for anything else in life>>> nothing would ever be for sale right???

and even the big buck guys sell stuff.lose interest,better investments,divorce,kiddee's in school.lost job's....freakin CANCER!!!all the fun of life.....................holy krap the soapbox..............

anyhow i am sure you want me to price it for you,send me a e-mail and i will.................ron colt/21a

now i am taking out the {take care,}because i don't.wink!!!he-he............we need humor now!!
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#19 colt21a

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 02:05 PM

QUOTE (SecondAmend @ Feb 21 2004, 02:00 PM)
Unfortunately, gotta side with Arthur on this debate. I say unfortunately because I'd like to own a '21 but it doesn't look like I ever will. The three 90% '21 AC's Jerry Prasser had at $19,500 each about a month ago were gone in three days.

In any case, condition plays a big factor in any high buck collectible item. Just watch a few episodes of "Antiques Road Show" to see how a refinsh job, no matter how well done, can torpedo a value. As a current TSMG example, longmountain has had the refinish '28 West Hurley at $8,500 for months. Meanwhile, other '28 WH's have gone for $9K+ .

Hurridale, you did, a few posts back, brought out the psychological barrier effect. Looks like people balk at a $10K '28 Westie today. On the other hand, Nick at Western seems to be moving M1/M1A1's at over $14K. We'll see if the $25K '21 is a barrier with the J.C. Devine auction prices.

At any rate, at least an overpriced Thompson (or MP-40) is easier to store than an overpriced '60's muscle car.

i will take that mint condition muscular car...........and have room for storage.........

a 1973 vette,454 with 1,400 miles on it,is worth more then a colt anyday.............look it up!!!wink!!!RON

or zardoz
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#20 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 02:59 PM

Ron,
1973 Vettes were the worst year out of the 1968-73 period. The soft front/chrome rear bumper never caught on style wise. Even with its optional 454 CID, any small block any previous, or subsequent year, vette up to 1982 is a better investment.

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