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#21 DC Chris

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 03:11 PM

QUOTE
Asking prices and taking prices are two different things.


John, again I disagree to some extent. These guns are, for the most part from Class 3 dealers, are NOT moving in the case of WH 1928's over 10K. This tells me the sellers are holding firm and inflating the market.... or waiting for the market to catch up to the currently inflated prices by todays standards. So your argument fails if the taking price never drops below the initial asking price.

Case in point: Overpriced guns

This isn't to say you have to use these brokers and find your own third party sale.

Chris.

Edited by DC Chris, 21 February 2004 - 03:13 PM.

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#22 colt21a

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 06:19 PM

QUOTE (Arthur Fliegenheimer @ Feb 21 2004, 02:59 PM)
Ron,
1973 Vettes were the worst year out of the 1968-73 period. The soft front/chrome rear bumper never caught on style wise. Even with its optional 454 CID, any small block any previous, or subsequent year, vette up to 1982 is a better investment.

funny you should say that my cousins ex.hubbie was just offered $40,000 for his to display in a rich guys dealer showroom,

but then maybe he has the more money then a brain theory you think???

heck i have even paid $5,000.00 plus for a nice dragunov sniper.......over and out RON.
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#23 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 21 February 2004 - 08:10 PM

Hardrede,
Those Colt prices I listed are not opinions, they are done deals. I agree with the pricing on the Mac's, HK's, etc, they are trying to hitch a ride on the escalating prices of truly collectable NFA weapons. Colt's and overstamps are the same thing.

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#24 John Jr

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Posted 22 February 2004 - 12:18 AM

Poor Arthur, one JC OVERPRICED DEVINE auction and you think your 28 Navy is worth 69,000 AT LEAST.

By the way, you failed to post the fact that a West Hurley sold for $6500 or whatever in that auction.

There are a lot of factors here that are being overlooked:

There are people out there that:
1. Don't know you can buy machine guns
2. If they find out they can buy a MG and find out the prices they run the other direction
3. Find out MG's are legal, but live in a state where they are outlawed
4. Those that want one, but cant afford one right now, but are saving up
5. Those that want one, can afford it and searching for the right gun
6. Those that can't afford one, and will NEVER be able to afford one
7. Are in the business of buying and selling MGs for a living
8. Own a machine gun they bought a long time ago and wont shoot it because they are worth too much now


I am sure I have left someone out, but this covers most of the "people in the market."

95% of the populus is excluded by #1, of the remaning 5%, 50% are excluded by number 2. Those 50% now have one chance in three that they live in a state that does not allow MGs. We are talking about less than 1% of the people in the country will be potential MG buyers or even less when you figure in the amount of money it takes. Ready, Willing, and Able buyers are NOT as plentiful as the internet may seem. There is a threshold here.

There are a VERY few people out there that made any real money on machine guns. Dealers who have been in it for a LONG TIME. Pre 86 Class 2's, dealers who collected and kept the right guns, etc...

So what if you bought a MG in 1978 for $2,500 and its worth $25,000 now. How much money did you really make sitting on your gun? Thats 10 times what you paid for it in 26 years. Are you rich? You made less than $23,000 over 26 years and thats less than $75 per month in profit, plus you have to pay income taxes on that if you sell it. We are talking about less than 4% a year here. Inflation is probably more than that.

I paid too much for my gun. Its worth 60% more than I paid for it in 2 years time. I have made 30% each year I have owed it. Sure beats your 4%. Get the picture yet?

QUOTE
John, again I disagree to some extent. These guns are, for the most part from Class 3 dealers, are NOT moving in the case of WH 1928's over 10K. This tells me the sellers are holding firm and inflating the market.... or waiting for the market to catch up to the currently inflated prices by todays standards. So your argument fails if the taking price never drops below the initial asking price.


There is only ONE way to appraise MG sales. Recent compairable sales. Thus my statement of asking prices vs. selling prices. Informed sellers and informed buyers in an arms length transaction must be included.

You can ask 12K for a West Hurley and sell it for 8K. The gun was worth 8K. Do you see?

JR

PS ... Sorry these people hijacked your thread.
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#25 SecondAmend

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Posted 22 February 2004 - 09:16 AM

Somewhat against my better judgement I'll kick in here with another psychological factor. For a percentage of buyers, Thompsons are "not their" guns, while MAC's, M-14's, M-16's, S&W 76's, etc. are "their" guns. These buyers grew up watching "McQ". "Lone Wolf McQuade," "Mr. Majestyck (sp?)," "The Getaway," "Apocolypse (sp?) Now", etc. These buyers will inflate the price of the respective MG's.

The Reising, the Beretta 38, and the like were not really "anybody's" gun hence the value will never approach the more popular guns. Hardrede is correct to note the Thompson has a culture behind it that even further enhances the mystique and desirablility.
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#26 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 22 February 2004 - 11:31 AM

John J,
Only four of the Thompson's I listed were from auction, and the prices I quoted were minus the commission fee. The rest were private party sales. The fact that the WH gun only commanded $6500, (compared to Devine's estimate of $10K), only serves to support my contention that the WH examples are not getting the prices that Hurridale supposes.

Your so called "over looked" factors have nothing to do with the simple fact that NFA guns are rediculously expensive regardless of whether they are proper investments, or that the potential market of buyers is relatively small. Blame Forbes Magazine for the rapid inflation of prices since they advised wealthy investors to concentrate their attention on a hobby they knew nothing about, and cared less for. If you do not like the fact that your 1928A1 Savage has risen in value, then consider having it buried with you upon your demise. That will save you from the embarassment of ever having to take an excessive amount of money for a gun you paid a whole lot less for.

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#27 John Jr

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Posted 22 February 2004 - 02:58 PM

QUOTE
The fact that the WH gun only commanded $6500, (compared to Devine's estimate of $10K), only serves to support my contention that the WH examples are not getting the prices that Hurridale supposes.
It also supports my argument that you can ask 10 but will not get it and will take less if you are a seller, not a potential seller.

Jr
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#28 pdursin

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Posted 23 February 2004 - 09:11 PM

Hurridale,

I paid $7500 for a Savage 1928A1 in July, 2002 and was offered $12,000 for the same gun by a dealer in November, 2003. Admittedly, I probably got a very good deal on the purchase but that's a pretty hefy increase in 16 months. The dealer told me that he could sell the gun right then for a profit at that price.

If you want to get the highest price you can, put your toy up for auction or start contacting some of the dealers that do a lot of advertising.

Pete Dursin
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#29 Hurridale

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Posted 23 February 2004 - 09:17 PM

Pete,

Damn! You DID get a good deal! Thanks for your suggestions on how I can get the most for mine.

Regards,
DC
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