NFA market values and the NFA act
Posted 07 August 2003 - 10:34 PM
It's worth as much as you want to pay for it.
Especially now, given that - what, 50% of the US population is un/under-employed or fearing for their employment as our jobs go to the 3rd World? - it's a buyers market now.
Guns are (speaking in matter of fact voice) pretty much a frivolous luxury item, like that Vette, Viper, boat, golf bags, RC tank, cruise, whatever.
When us consumers are leery, our spending on luxuries slows/stops.
We focus on the necessities - food, rent, normal car, tuition bills, etc. Gun purchases and boats are set aside for "someday".
And if your in the business of actually trying to feed your family on sales of high-end guns these days, you might be sweating bullets (pun unintended.) right now.
Yes, we still have folks with money to spend, and they will still buy, but those folks aren't as numerous as say, 6-8 years ago, when the economy was booming and stocks and 401Ks were flying high and 23yr-olds were renting apartments in Redmond for $5K month.
Lot's of buyers back then, with lots of heated competition for NFA - - prices rose accordingly. That was the past.
The only NFA that seems to be climbing today are the "low end", "still affordable" guns - like the MACs. Because they are still pretty much within reach of the remaining buyers in the market, prices are moving up to meet the demand.
All that BS espoused, I'd make the seller an offer that you feel comfortable with paying, and if he really wants to sell - perhaps to help pay his own mortgage - he'll take it or leave it.
Back then, the seller would dictate to YOU, not so today. Not unless he has a recipe to feed his WH to his hungry family or has the wherewithall to "sit" on his WH and wait for the recovery.
Man I sure wish I could be a buyer right now!
Posted 07 August 2003 - 11:34 PM
I couldn't imagine a person that has a more incorrect take on the NFA market than you. Like it or not, collectable machine guns are going UP, not down. Junk guns like the Macs wont rise very quickly. They are cheap for a reason.
Anyway, the NFA market has not been a buyers market in years and will never be. There are too many people like me that will NEVER sell. The STOCK market is a very piss poor market and will continue to be until the slumping economy recovers. Clinton's fault.
Folks who are worried about food, rent, ECT... are not MG buyers.
I always make offers, I buy some and I get rejected on 99%. Those that do take the offers might be in the gutter financially, but most just say no.
The MG market will continue to rise, just as it has in the past.
I don’t know where you get your ideas NFAFAN, but you need to rethink them.
Real collectable MG's are going up every year regardless of "market conditions elsewhere." Guns are an excellent investment.
This is not a personal attack on you, but your take is way backwards.
Posted 08 August 2003 - 12:23 AM
Posted 11 August 2003 - 11:47 PM
I understand the NFA, GCA, May 19th. I understand that there is a finite pool of transferables that us average civilians (non-gov, non-SOT) can ever hope to buy.
I understand that the high end guns, Brens, BARs, MG42s, M60s, 1921s, 1917s, et al are collectible, desirable, - and very expensive when/if someone wants to part with one. Yes, they are only going to go up, they don't make them any more.
But no, the "junk" - or low-end - guns are climbing too.
Witness the rise in Sten prices (regardless if they are CR or CL2 weld-ups) since the Stenlings came along.
The rise in Reising prices, and the MACs going up too.
These low-end guns are going up because many in the market are willing to take the plunge - without taking out a second mortgage.
These make a good settle-for gun for the one who wants a TSMG or an MP40 but just can't take the swing for whatever reason.
For many, the MAC is a great entry-level, 100% factory original MG - with a huge aftermarket in accessories and support.
Thanks to MAC sales, interest in "better" MGs took off, much to the delight of SOTs and "investors".
I only hope that the day I take out my 1927A1 Deluxe - it functions as flawlessly as my PS M10/45 did from Day One.
>Anyway, the NFA market has not been a buyers market in years >and will never be. There are too many people like me that will >NEVER sell. The STOCK market is a very piss poor market and will >continue to be until the slumping economy recovers. Clinton's fault.
>Folks who are worried about food, rent, ECT... are not MG buyers.
You just made my point. Many people ARE worried these days.
True, there will always be a percentage of folks with money to spend regardless of the economy, even during the Depression, there were people with money. And if you were within a mile of any shopping district this weekend, you'd see evidence of folks with money. So yes, you'll always have your Midas buyers.
But when times are tough, people *in general* become vary wary of their discretionary spending habits.
That $4K that was saved up for an MG, boat, whatever - stays squirreled away - just in case.
Any industry that relies on that discretionary spending of a nervous Harry Homeowner these days - is hurting.
>I always make offers, I buy some and I get rejected on 99%. >Those that do take the offers might be in the gutter financially, but >most just say no.
You made my point again - some do take offers, and I'll bet you had to search to find them too.
Those that don't - but should - that's their priority. I'll never forget the CL3 at the one PGCA show, with the table piled high with expensive inventory, and a shoeless kid running around and a wife that looks like she hasn't been out to a dinner since her wedding, but he was firm on his prices. A guy a few tables away was ready willing and able to negotiate.
But as you said, some do take offers. That's why I suggest that the poster just make an offer of what he was willing to pay, what it was of "value" to him personally.
Else, if he really wants it bad, he'll pay the asking price. If not, he moves on like you and I did and keeps looking and offering.
OTOH... if the guy whos selling re-thinks the offer, he may decide that some liquid assets in the bank are more precious during these uncertain times than a not-so-quickly liquidated NFA item.
I have no plans to sell, but if some dimwit wants to give me an outrageous sum for my toys, I'll take it. There are quit a few folks who laughed all the way to the bank when they sold their $900.00 HK94-cum-MP5s for $8K plus.
>The MG market will continue to rise, just as it has in the past.
I think there is also a wee bit of "baseball card dealing" going on as to MG prices...
That is; if you ever go into a trading card store and ask "what's Joe Blow's rookie card going for?" - you get one price.
But then if you whip out Joe's rookie card and offer to sell him one at that price... well, the value is suddenly very VERY different.
I've always been baffled when inquiring about a price on an MG to buy; "there is no more, ever, this is it, the last one, buy now or it goes up $500 next week, I got 10 buyers calling, don't know when I'll get another", but - if you say "what would you give me for X?"; and suddenly there is this massive NFA wholesale market that appeared and dictates the price the SOT will pay.. "I can get those all day long for $x, I sell 'em for this $ and can't sell them, no one wants them".
>I don’t know where you get your ideas NFAFAN, but you need to >rethink them.
Been around one too many gunshows I guess.
>Real collectable MG's are going up every year regardless of "market >conditions elsewhere." Guns are an excellent investment.
Agree to a point. It's that "value" thing again.
A certain CL2 I know cut and numbered about 6 miles of pipe before May 19th. He adds in a $50.-$100. Sten parts kit - and his labor to weld on that 5cents of pipe - this is not of $3K value - to me. To others, yes, he's still selling them as fast as he can weld.
Value and worth can be personal takes based on an individual's circumstances and feelings for an item. An item is only worth what one wants to pay for it. Any TSMG of any brand is worth $5-6K to me, but not $10K, I have other things to do with $10K that are more of value to me than another gun. But that's just me.
Guns are an OK investment, MGs are good investments, but not excellent investments IMO. (Exceptions abound of course; maybe you were lucky enough to buy a couple WH's when they were $850.00 - and you just sold one for $9K. Or that HK94 and sear pak you bought years ago for under $2K and someone just paid you $8.5K for it.)
Investments need buyers, the more the potential buyers, the better the investment.
The more the chance that the projected value will be also be agreed to by the potential buyer, then the better the investment.
What I mean is this;
With only , what, about 34 states allowing MG ownership? There's a huge potential client base - gone from the investment market.
Of the 34 states allowing civilian ownership:
* Anti-gun as potential investors - gone.
* Gun owners that have zero interest in MGs whatsoever - gone.
* Gun owners that like them but can't be bothered with the paperwork and loss of anonimity - those investors, gone.
* Gun owners that can't get a CLEO sign-off without moving - those investors are gone.
* Gun owners that can't even bear to think about paying $1,000.00 for a folded sheet metal MAC, let alone $10K+ for a TSMG - gone.
* Gun owners that have no idea thay can even own one - potential.
* MAC owners that want to move up to their dream gun - potential.
* 1927A1 owners that want to move up - potential.
So no, I still say that guns, especially MGs, are a discretionary luxury item that are subject to the whims of the buyers and the state of the economy **as it relates to the buyers personal finances and willingness to trade cash for an item**. Too iffy to be an "excellent" investment in my portfolio. But when my MAC is sold for far FAR more than the $75.00 I paid for it, I'll change my tune.
Posted 12 August 2003 - 09:10 AM
Also, those of us that are in our mid 50's (and there are a lot of us) are starting to realize that we only have about another 20 years (if we are lucky) and it's time to start getting the toys we always wanted. The kids are grown, the house is almost paid for, the car is in good shape and paid for, the wife has ALMOST everything she wants....it's our turn.
In my case, I bought the Colt 21/28 Navy's because #1 it was a great price based on my searching the net for over two years and #2 I'm sure it will be an item of increaseing value I can pass on to my son.
I can't see any way that an original Colt 1920's prouduction will go down in value. Even if (and I wish it would happen) the laws were changed.
The Chief Deputy with the department that I got my guns from said he couldn't beleive I was paying that much money for those old guns. He's big into bass fishing....I thought to myself that bass boat that you paid $30,000.00 for last year will go down in value each year you own it; the Thompsons I bought will go up in value each year that I own them.
When I first started looking about 4 years ago Colt 21's and 28's were in the $10k to 14k range; they are no longer in that range.
Just some thoughts!
Posted 12 August 2003 - 10:16 AM
Posted 12 August 2003 - 11:16 AM
I follow very closley the world of gun control and try and be as pro-active as possible. Of course, if the anti-gun/anti-self defense nuts win, that would be the exception to my theory on prices. Hopefully (with as many of us as possible taking a pro-active stance) that won't happen.
We will never win if we continue to take a defensive position. I have written a proposal with respect to class III and would be glad to email you a copy for your suggestions and thoughts. At some point in time I hope to meet someone who knows someone that could "put it in the right hands".........Bruce
Posted 12 August 2003 - 11:56 AM
Posted 12 August 2003 - 01:23 PM
We should get down on our hands and knees and thank the powers that be that the 1934 Act did not abolish automatic weapons throughout the United States under any circumstances. All it did was to regulate these items, levy a tax, and leave it up to individual states to decide if residents could own them. I see nothing wrong with the type of regulation now in place for these weapons. If buyers could pony up the $200 to ATF back when that amount greatly exceeded the price of the actual weapon, we should not be complaining today. The background check on potential buyers is not intrusive either. The urban myth that the government compiles this record of buyers and sellers in order to confiscate the weapons at a later date was the straw man argument conceived back in 34.
There are conservatively 300 million firearms out in the hands of American citizens. Some registered. Most not. These guns are not coming back. Any attempt to try to gather them would be folly. Even these pinhead politicans realize that. There will always be several states like New York, California, Washington, Hawaii and the District of Columbia that are never going to embrace gun ownership. If the residents of those states were principally interested in changing the existing laws they would have voted out the offending politican standing in their way. Maybe residents in those states should petition for a law concerning the right to recall their state governor. It seems to be working in Cal.
Now it is true that the NRA's support for machinegun owners is not even on their radar screen. They prefer to represent hunters and cheap Saturday Night Specials. But it may be to our benefit that most people, including politicians, believe that full auto weapons are illegal to own. The fact that politicians and police chiefs do not routinely elaborate on the process an individual goes through, in states that allow them, keeps the spotlight off the subject.
The 1934 law is not our enemy. It is our ally. Let's not screw it up for the sake of fanning the fires of paranoia.
Posted 12 August 2003 - 02:42 PM
I agree with Arthur. The NFA act is our friend and we need not muck it up or draw too much attention to it. At the very least, be thankful the rate of inflation since 1934 hasn't affected the cost of the transfer. For if it had, we'd be shelling out 8k for a Thompson and nearly 3k for the stamp!
Posted 12 August 2003 - 06:01 PM
Posted 12 August 2003 - 09:02 PM
Posted 12 August 2003 - 09:24 PM
For the Class III items that fall under the collector's list (i.e Thompson) these prices will never come down.
My wife knows, if we both loose our jobs and the house, I will still have my Thompson. Won't being pawning it off too quickly just to pay for a meal.
Back in the late 80s, I read a book entitle The Great Depression of 1990 (supposed to be a prediction). Then still in the late 80s, while visiting the Trump tower on a sightseeing tour, I meet Mr. Trump (got his book signed) and asked about the validity of this other book titled The Great Depression of 1990. Mr. Trump stated that there are too many wealthy people in this country to have it happen.
Ok, so why did I tell you that… Because the fact there are so many doctors, lawyers, CEO who will always be pulling millions of $$$ a year, there will always be people around who can afford any type of Collectible item and enjoy purchasing collectible items.
The Internet has opened many doors and you get these people with money who are just finding out they can own a Thompson. Now, they have cash and not too concerned about price, but rather more concerned with just wanting to own one of these beauties. (Who wouldn’t???) So, they search the Internet find a price and pay it not knowing its about 3K above market price. I tend to research prices for just about any item I plan on purchasing. (Guns, TVs, Lawnmowers… ) so I can be an educated consumer and get a fair price, but you can bet if I win the lottery this weekend, it will stop and I will be happy to pay the sticker price for any item to avoid taking the time to become educated.
Now here is my take on market prices. I have sold a few items on E-Bay. Lets say I purchase an item at a store for X dollars. Place this same item on E-Bay and it sells for $13. So, is the market value now $13 just because someone paid $13? What if I only paid $5 or $7 for this item. Is the fact that maybe an uneducated consumer make a purchase that it’s the basis for defining market price???? (That’s the question of the day.)
On a side note, remember, just a few more years, these Colts will be 100 years old, watch prices skyrocket on its birthday.
***Note: The opinions expressed here are my own and not necessarily that of a sober person.
Posted 12 August 2003 - 09:48 PM
"""***Note: The opinions expressed here are my own and not necessarily that of a sober person."""
Im rolling on the floor!
Posted 12 August 2003 - 09:59 PM
Posted 12 August 2003 - 10:55 PM
I've bought several guns that I've always wanted and I paid what they were asking, no haggling. If it's a peach of a piece (condition counts), it will get sold out from under you if you try to haggle too much. The guns have always gone up in value and I've never regretted it. I'm not rich by any stretch of the imagination, but there are doctors, lawyers, dentists, CEO's, engineers, etc. who appreciate these items also and who don't bat an eye at dropping $10,000-20,000 on a gun.
Posted 12 August 2003 - 11:51 PM
Posted 13 August 2003 - 07:44 AM
BTW guys In our "modern" "regulated" society I think too many of US forget the people in government ARE OUR SERVENTS. The bigger problem is that the SERVENTS have forgotten.
Posted 13 August 2003 - 09:03 AM
On the topic of the Constitution (history, government, political science teacher hat "on") you must remember that it was to apply only to the Federal or Central Government. The Constitution of 1787 -- actually a carry over of the old Articles of Confederation -- was in actuality only a treaty between thirteen independent, sovereign States (think European Union for example). The Constitution did not affect the citizens -- there was no such thing as a citizen of the United States -- it only affected the relationship of the Federal Government to the various State Governments. In short, the Bill of Rights was added in order to get it ratified by the requisite nine States and thus abolish the "Perpetual Union" established by the old Articles. (As an aside, this gave legal precedence to the act of secession, but that's a whole other lecture.) Keep in mind that the founder's had just led a long and bloody revolution to overthrow a repressive and intolerant government. They had no intention of setting up the same thing. The Central Government was only to be the agent for the several States. In other words, in dealings within the continental United States the States themselves were supreme. The Central Government was there to show a force of unity only when dealing with other nations around the world. The States were so afraid of centralizing power that they insisted on the inclusion of certain "Amendments" (10 to be exact) to prevent the overthrow of their power. Although 1 and 2 are/were important the really important ones were numbers 9 and 10. All that to say this, the States can, and do, make their own laws regarding gun control and it's still legal and Constitutionally valid. So, re-read the Bill of Rights, but in the light that it is referring only to the limitation of the Central Government and it will shed an entirely new light on the subject. And, as I end any class -- questions?, comments? rebuttals?