55 replies to this topic

[gunrunner]

Has anyone else noticed all of the NFA guns for sale on subguns.com by Greg Scott, William Tucker, Vito /Only The Best, Ruben Mendiola and others.
These are not junk NFA either we are talking colt's, Thompson's, Browning's and others.

Maybe it is just me being paranoid, but are these people dumping because of big profit or could there possible be some new law coming our way.

Just a thought, does anyone else want to chime in??

gunrunner

[John Jr]

You think they are going to make them legal again or have another amnesty?

[Z3BigDaddy]

I would think the other direction myself...

[guy sajer]

QUOTE

Maybe it is just me being paranoid, but are these people dumping because of big profit or could there possible be some new law coming our way.

Dumping to me means selling at below market value . I haven't seen anyone "dumping" . Did I miss something ?

However , I do believe there are a good number of elderly collectors selling because they don't want their heirs to have to deal with the hassle of the transfers . Selling to a recognized dealer is easier in their mind than trying to advertise a machine gun for sale . Most of them bought many years ago , so even though they don't see $25-30k for their BAR , the $15-20K the dealer offered is a good deal more than the $2k they payed originally . Maybe the guns that the dealers you mentioned are selling are coming from the older collectors ?

Edited by guy sajer, 02 August 2005 - 05:30 PM.

[PATHFINDER]

Here is one theory: We are actually in an economic depression. The only reason no one is job/homeless is that we have been living on consumer debt and coasting along. The real estate market has been booming and people have been HELOCing themselves into new cars and treats like boats and Skidoos since the mid 90s'. Also having what they think is disposable income they buy 'investments' like NFAs and we have all seen how it has driven this market crazy.

Here is the problem: they are just starting to run out of consumer credit and all of those bills will soon come due. They have maxed out their houses equity lines and can get no more out of them. Now they owe for credit cards, loans for cars and huge packages on their houses (all those companies like Rock Financial handing out 120% loans has not helped). Soon they will have NO cash to pay bills.

SO they must start to unload 'investments' they bought with their equity lines. As soon as enough people default or file bankruptcy (oh, that’s right the Republican congress passed a law that says you can't file bankruptcy on consumer debt if you make more that your state's median income) the Federal reserve will raise interest rates to keep the banks afloat the banks will start adjusting the hell out of the interest rate on their houses as soon as they can. Banks will stop all of the free and cheap loans for real estate and the bottom will fall out of the market.

Home prices will drop as there will be a glut in the housing market from all the urbanspralling white trash with the acre and half lots building as fast as they can. People who owe more than they have in assets and will have no more credit available will have to dump their houses and 'investments' just to get out from under the $1500 and growing house payment. THEN we will have people being homeless and jobless.

My wife works for one of the biggest credit counseling companies in the US (Greenpath) and she is just starting to see the leading edge of this economic down turn. People with combined incomes in the $150,000+ area who are falling flat on their arses with 20+ credit cards maxed out and have no way out. Some even have 30-40 Providian cards all with $1000 limits. They are all maxed out and each month each card gets a service charge and late fee and penalty times forty cards. Add that up!

Any way, a flood of NFAs on the market means prices will go down. Or they can hold on to them because they are ‘investments’ and they will continue to loose on them because they bought in with home equity that will have interest going up on it faster than it rises in value Or if they bought it on credit cards because people with good credit (like them) get low rates, will be surprised when they miss a cable bill payment and find out that ALL of their creditors raise their interest rates across the board to 20+%, because of a new thing called 'unilateral default' (ie miss one payment, somewhere, one time and you have instant bad credit) will loose even faster on that NFA 'investment'! But remember dear yuppie: a 21a Thompson tastes great if you toast it lightly and butter it on one side.

Oh, and their is no limit on how high they can jack your interest rate. The Republicans took care of that in the 80s when they deregulated banking and dumped the usury laws.

Now maybe decent NFAs at decent prices will start to shake loose form the hands of all those Yuppie investors and back into the hands of collectors. Yep, the honest working stiff who pays his bills in cash and asks for no credit may win one.


PS. This same theory is applying to all of the Harley Davidson’s they bought to play biker on the weekend with that are showing up on the market with about 1500 miles per year worth of mileage and an asking price of 20-30% less than it cost new two years ago!!

[giantpanda4]

I have been waiting for HDs to show on the market for what you quoted! I have been guessing that there are a lot of office types who buoght black leather chaps and became a weekend Harley person, and will soon be dumping the bikes (literally!) when it is not "cool". But I have not seen it here in MI yet.

Vito had a 21, tri-color as I recall, and was raising the price every month or so. He had it on GunBroker. I remember it starting well below $17K and last saw it at $21K. That was about a year ago. Michael (Sig) has a record of many sales, maybe he can shed light on this gun (I don't remember the s/n).

I guess my point is they still paid a LOT less than they are "dumping" them for. And if they are dumping..... I am still looking for a cheap M1 and a Pony gun for under $10K!!!!

[philasteen]

If they are dumping I am buying. Some of the pieces coming out are amazing:

- Colt 1918 BAR
- NIB 93R
- Astra 903
- Colt Monitor
- Ultimax 100

And they are all by one seller too. I'd buy any and all of those.

[full auto 45]

Panda, you want a HD, have I got a deal for you..................

[giantpanda4]

Does it come with the extra seat covers in the calender picture??

Actually looking for a 87 FXRS.... with seat covers!

[leid]

Hi Mitch,
I think you have it about right. Greg has other nice pieces that have not been listed yet.
Carey

[Waffen Und Bier]

Ruben and Vito are dealers and are always buying/selling stuff. Some of the other guys may be cashing in on some stuff for other ventures, etc. Summer prices are usually a little softer than Fall/ Winter prices. People have been saying the same thing since 1986. Mind you, $35,000 for a stocked, selective fire pistol is still a chunk of change (for the average Joe at least ...... unless they've sold a house in Central Florida lately). My only regrets are selling the ones I've already sold. Oh well, my sons will still have some nice toys one day.

[CAL7]

I recently started thinking about how well these guns have performed as an investment, so I did some calculations. The purchase prices are guns I, or someone I know, actually paid (except the new 1921AC); the values are my best guesses, some informed, some not:

• A TSMG 1921AC bought for $5K in 1989, assuming it's worth $30K today, has an annual return of 11.1%
  
• If you had bought a new 1921AC for the list price of $200 in 1928 (still assuming it's worth $30K today), it would have given an annual return of 6.5%
  
• A TSMG 1928A1 purchased for $1800 in 1989, assuming it's worth $20K today, has an annual return of 15%
  
• A RIA M60 bought in 1982 for $2K, and I guess is worth about $25K today, has give an annual return of 10.2%
  
• A pre-86 dealer sample 1918BAR bought in 1983 for $225 and worth $7k today has given an annual return of 15.5%
  
• A Colt M16A1 bought in 1983 for $590 and worth $15k today has given an annual return of 14.7%
  
• A pre-86 dealer sample Steyr AUG-P bought in 1984 for $830 and worth $22k today has given an annual return of 15.4%
  

I thought these results were surprising. We assume something bought cheap that has gone up wildly must be giving a good investment return. But, compared to a CD or Bond, the returns are only modestly better. Of course, they are much more fun!

[Mongo]

QUOTE (CAL7 @ Aug 3 2005, 12:00 PM)

But, compared to a CD or Bond, the returns are only modestly better.  Of course, they are much more fun!

Where do you get CDs or Bonds that give rate of returns that your estimating? Most CDs I've seen are lucky to get 4.5%and that's for 84 months!

I bought my Stoner for 12K in 1997 (my hand still has a cramp in it from writing the check) I've added about 7K in accessories to it. The last Stoner set up that sold with the same stuff I have was 115K. So I believe that's about an ARR of 29%. To buy the Stoner originally I borrowed against my 401K (told them I was buying a car), now I wished that I had bought more at the time since my 401K is worth half as mush as it was then (Basically a -10% ARR for it).

[CAL7]

Since the time periods I looked at were mostly 20+ years, and the original 1921AC over 80 years, my frame of reference was not today's rates. In the early 80's, the 20-year Treasury bond was going for over 15%. Of course that was the high, and at other times over the period in question, rates were much less. But, we have to take into account the big jump in values that existing Class III took in May, 1986 - I can't see the Feds "helping";) us collectors like that again. It's more likely that they will make our collections worth the price of scrap iron . I'm with you, because I have a similar amount of cash tied up in this investment; but it has to be viewed as a risky investment (loss, devaluation, act of God, government intervention, etc., etc.) and the huge returns that most collectors theorize are not there, at least according to my limited study.

Using your Stoner, if you paid $19K in mid-1997, I calculate a compounded APR of 22.3%. That's great, but how typical is it? And, I can find fixed investments that are more risky than CD's, but less than machine guns, that pay 10%.

Again, I'm on your side. I am still a buyer, but I have to honestly tell myself I am buying mostly for the fun with the expectation that it will probably go up in value but not at extraordinary rates. I was simply trying to apply a little objective analysis to an area that gets a lot of subjective WOW (I am the first one to plead guilty) that I believe is overstated by most holders of Class III guns.

[Mike Hammer]

Pathfinder and Phil, your comments are right on the money. Just yesterday the financial world came out with new data suggesting increased US production and tried to paint a rosey picture of our economy, but it's like they are looking into one of those mirrors at the carnival, the image is a complete distortion but they want to pretend all is well. The accumulating debt will eventually come to head, it has to. As far as the prices of Thompsons and other class 3 weapons, ... I will not buy any more UNTILL the prices come down. The risk of laying that much cash out there on these "precarious" items is not worth it. I will be content with the handful that I currently own, fight like hell to keep them and hopefully get my original cost back when I do decide to sell them. The class 3 community will need to be vigilant in it's efforts to maintain our rights and freedom to own these weapons, otherwise all of us here will feel not only the loss of freedom but a substantial monetary loss as well.

Mike Hammer

[Johnny.45]

Greetings,

Just thought I'd add to the list of exotic MGs recently listed for sale.
There is now a NIB FN M249 up for sale on Sturm. The price is rediculously low @ $47.5K for a M249, so it must be a Dealer only gun, but even at the price listed it seems like a sweet deal. It is being offered for sale by Greg Scott also.

Carey, who is Greg Scott?

Anyway, I agree There seems to be some very nice NFA items going on the market this summer.

Take Care,

Johnny

[JimFromFL]

Is this a gun board or an economics class??

Alot of good information here and am willing to bet mostly right on the mark too.

[colt21a]

real ,real simple.. you have a mill.cash tied up in class three, when time's get hard .just find the guy who has many million's to part with.and sell it to him or her.easier said then done of course........

i never looked at them as investment.just history.and hopefully to always get my moolah back!!....and luckily i did........in todays day and pricing...not too sure.....

since now ten nice colt's will run you $300,000.000 to get back... a number of year's ago>then only $100,000.00

ask yourselve's whats easier to come up with $100,000.00 or $300,000.00


i think alot more people are worried about that now...as i said alot but not all............ what me worry.naw!

cash is always easier to carry then iron..lug a 50 cal.to the store for food..wink!!

john dillinger did not collect gun's,he used them to get wha???/CASH!

very fascinating subject.

buy what you can afford...a rep at the local gun show only last's that day!

enjoy have fun............and spend!! spend!! spend!!

take care,ron

[PATHFINDER]

QUOTE (giantpanda4 @ Aug 3 2005, 08:26 AM)

Actually looking for a 87 FXRS

Hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm! Low glide

[21 smoker]

If you are a` collector`,than any fluctuation in market price up or down is not as influentual in the whole process of acquiring NFA. If you are an` investor`,than the economic nuances posted here probably ring true.....for me,this is about the `FUN` ......of shooting and collecting some of the most remarkable creations in history of mankind...this is a hobby,an expensive hobby,but still a hobby....I don`t believe I would ever borrow,with interest,for a hobby..just does not make sense to me...in the long run it is easier to save up the cost of the MG,...cash is such a powerful tool...sometimes we forget that...