|A TSMG 1921AC bought for $5K in 1989, assuming it's worth $30K today, has an annual return of 11.1%|
If you had bought a new 1921AC for the list price of $200 in 1928 (still assuming it's worth $30K today), it would have given an annual return of 6.5%
While some buyers of NFA items have claimed on their ATF forms that the purchase is for investment purposes, this was not an obvious and legitimate claim until only a couple of years ago. Going back to 1989 to determine the annual rate of increase of a Colt TSMG is not really an accurate portrayal of the skyrocketing climb in prices in the last two years. If one ponied up $20K for a Colt TSMG two years ago and it sells for over $31K, that is an annual 25% increase. Whether this is a trend or a fluke time will tell. But I'm not aware of any 401K, CD or or even the Black Hand's usury rate that can compete with that.
I personally do not endorse the prevailing opinion that it is wise to invest in NFA items. The silly prices may be a welcome by product to those who got into NFA items 30 years ago, but did they really hold onto them for 30 years expecting this windfall?
Those who have bought (and buying currently) a couple of years ago could probably not afford (except people with the bank accounts of a Robert Silvers) to pay the market prices and not expect their hobby to increase, or at the least stabilize, the value of their investment.
Greg Scott's Colt Monitor is indeed a rare and historical item considering how many have succumbed to the welder's torch (see Ballou's article in SAR), but if you cut a check for $85K today are you hoping that it will be worth over $100K (or at least the same amount) in the near or distant future, and can you live with the prospect it may only fetch half that, or less, in the near or distant future? A monitor just doesn't come on the market every day never mind every year. No doubt Scott is getting offers since his ad was placed, but since it is still there, I'm guessing the offers are not in the target area. In other words, as much of a Colt "Whore" (to employ JJ's affectionate sobriquet for me) I am reputed to be, I would need to take some refuge and comfort, based on historical data, that I wouldn't be left with a beautiful and rare firearm that may revert back to a monetary value of a fraction of $85K.