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Ot: Alot Of Mg's For Sale By Dealers?


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#21 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 01:44 PM

QUOTE
A TSMG 1921AC bought for $5K in 1989, assuming it's worth $30K today, has an annual return of 11.1%

If you had bought a new 1921AC for the list price of $200 in 1928 (still assuming it's worth $30K today), it would have given an annual return of 6.5%

CAL


While some buyers of NFA items have claimed on their ATF forms that the purchase is for investment purposes, this was not an obvious and legitimate claim until only a couple of years ago. Going back to 1989 to determine the annual rate of increase of a Colt TSMG is not really an accurate portrayal of the skyrocketing climb in prices in the last two years. If one ponied up $20K for a Colt TSMG two years ago and it sells for over $31K, that is an annual 25% increase. Whether this is a trend or a fluke time will tell. But I'm not aware of any 401K, CD or or even the Black Hand's usury rate that can compete with that.

I personally do not endorse the prevailing opinion that it is wise to invest in NFA items. The silly prices may be a welcome by product to those who got into NFA items 30 years ago, but did they really hold onto them for 30 years expecting this windfall?

Those who have bought (and buying currently) a couple of years ago could probably not afford (except people with the bank accounts of a Robert Silvers) to pay the market prices and not expect their hobby to increase, or at the least stabilize, the value of their investment.


Greg Scott's Colt Monitor is indeed a rare and historical item considering how many have succumbed to the welder's torch (see Ballou's article in SAR), but if you cut a check for $85K today are you hoping that it will be worth over $100K (or at least the same amount) in the near or distant future, and can you live with the prospect it may only fetch half that, or less, in the near or distant future? A monitor just doesn't come on the market every day never mind every year. No doubt Scott is getting offers since his ad was placed, but since it is still there, I'm guessing the offers are not in the target area. In other words, as much of a Colt "Whore" (to employ JJ's affectionate sobriquet for me) I am reputed to be, I would need to take some refuge and comfort, based on historical data, that I wouldn't be left with a beautiful and rare firearm that may revert back to a monetary value of a fraction of $85K.

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#22 colt21a

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 07:59 PM

art there are very ,very few dealer's and collector's,who bought something and held on to it for 30 year's...and people i have come across that have done that in life.drive the same car for twenty year's,live in the same house,trailer or apt,and have gone mostly no place and done nothing.the mover's and the shaker's don't stand still....they move, get nicer dig's, buy different thing's,

kinda see the world.

i'd have one heck of alot of a massive collection.....but what the heck! i spent it!!

now the other collector's can enjoy it and brag about that rare item they got...

since if i was a greedy hog...then they could not brag about the neat stuff they bought...the circle of life and mg's!!

and yes that colt monitor is kool!

at $85,000.00 even if i had that kind of dough,i'd pass!

since i did once for one at $12,000.00>bought a mint 98% winchester instead.for $5,000.00> a man's got to know his limit's with fun...

i am sure somebody will want it...and the family will be glad maybe someday,that daddy bought this gun......

not the new owner,but the guy who is selling........let nobody ever believe he paid $85,000.00 to buy it...

last sale i heard on one was $50,000.00 for a minty original out of a p.d. in wisc. and another out of indiana,

too cheap to print...anyways have fun......we are not supposed to lose hair or sleep out of all this...just get some moolah back...and say "we did it'
wink! take care,ron
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#23 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 08:34 PM

Ron,

Exactly! Losing sleep over the prospect of an $85K weapon having 80% of its price diminished by some law is the kind of peace of mind only an investor who is used to, and can afford to, eat the loss on bad stock pics and shady real estate deals. But if he/she is also a devotee of C&R MG's then they do have a beautiful keepsake to hand down. The combination of these two characteristics in NFA buyers may be common or a rarity. There is not enough public data to determine either way.

I think some collectors, not dealers, do hold on to their firearms for decades and have taken them off the market for all time. I don't just mean the bizzaro Jay Leno types who still have in their possession every car and cycle they have ever owned.

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#24 Johnny.45

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 08:58 PM

Arthur & Ron,

Could you give your opinions on a Colt R75A listed @ www.urban-armory.com for $85K?
And how rare is it to see a transferable Colt R75A come up for sale?
Would a collector spending $85K on a rare gun like the R75A or the R80 even shoot it?
Probably not. It would be kept in a safe and taken out once in a while to look at and maybe oil & clean.
I'm sure the R80 Colt Monitor is the most desireable BAR, but placing a $ value is difficult in todays NFA Market.
But its Historic value is almost priceless. So Someone will probably buy it.

Presently there are transferable M240s for sale @ $175K, and pre may M249s in the $50K-$75K range.
These guns are being purchased, and they are being shot. The availability of parts and the fact that these are current production guns probably makes shooting them less of an issue. But the price is still way out there.

FWIW the Colt R75A is reportedly Sold. Go Figure.

Thanks in Advance,

Johnny
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#25 Arthur Fliegenheimer

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 09:41 PM

Johnny.45,

I think the R75 at $85K is wishful thinking. It has been on Urban's website for some time. While both are "rare," the Monitor has more cache and mystique. Also there are damn few of the 125 or so Monitors still in existence. I don't know how many of the 800 or so R 75A's there are floating around, but my guess is that they way out number the Monitor. If a 1919 Commercial BAR can get $$40K-$50K, I guess a R75 might be more in that range.

Would one be inclined to shoot these weapons after paying the piper? Sure. But how many times after the initial few mags? That I guess depends on one's irreverence for hard to replace items

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#26 Johnny.45

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 10:13 PM

Arthur,

Thank You for your opinions and for the wealth of information on Colt BARs.
I've been lurking and looking around for Colt BARs and this Monitor is the first I've seen for sale.
The problem I'm having is determining the selling price after a piece has sold.
I watched a 1919 Colt Commercial sell for $30K a year ago at Arms-Ordnance.com which I passed on because I really wanted a 1918 military BAR instead. And I would want to shoot the 1918 BAR, but probably not the 1919 BAR.
I've even flown out to look at some $25K-$28K BARs that were not as advertised re: condition and properly dated and correct parts for a 1918 BAR of that price. Some were even rusted out in the gas cylinder with Korean era parts.
And every few months or so the price goes up again. Now the going price for a 1918 is around $35K and if your figures are correct on the 1919 then $30K a year ago would have been a very good deal?
Now The Colt Monitor is a whole different Deal altogether. I just can't believe that there is one for sale, $85K or not.

Thanks for your Help,

Johnny
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#27 philasteen

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 10:28 PM

I would say it's a good bet that if you don't buy this Colt Monitor you might not have another chance to acquire one in your lifetime.
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#28 Johnny.45

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 10:36 PM

philasteen,

I totally agree with you.
I'm thinking very seriously about the Colt Monitor.
Like I posted earlier I have never seen one for sale before.

Johnny
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#29 TNKen

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 11:17 PM

Guys, people that buy a Monitor are the same folks that belly up to the bar and whip it out to see who's is biggest. There are bragging rights at stake you know.

Now, with that said, the truth be known, most of us have stretched a budget to pick up a piece or two. Mine was on the post-war transferrable MG-42 built in '64. I got in it at a decent price (not a steal), and hope that one day it's worth a mint. Only about 6 in the registry. I would like to think it's worth about the same as the Monitor, but who knows. No one has offered that, but I haven't put it on the market either.

All of us have fantasies about the value of our collections rocketing out of sight. After seeing the stumbling prices this summer, I wonder.

My late night ramble for the day.

Ken


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#30 Johnny.45

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 11:42 PM

Ken,

I agree that there are bragging rights associated with the ownership of a Colt Monitor, and at $85K it is probably out of reach for most of us anyway. Too much Risk involved for the Return/Bragging Rights.
But there are some bragging rights with almost all NFA items and even some nonNFA. Just go to a Gun Range.
Also which do you think is a better investment/collectable a $18K-$20K Group Industries BAR, a $25K-$28K RIA M60 or a genuine $30K-$35K 1918 BAR?
I guess what I'm trying to say is people are paying close to the same price for some aftermarket items as they would for a Real Deal Historical item.
The Colt Monitor is an incredible piece of U.S. Firearms History and Law Enforcement History.
Also How many Monitors Have come up for sale?
For me it is just amazing to see a Monitor come up for sale out of someone's collection.

That is all,

Johnny
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#31 colt21a

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Posted 04 August 2005 - 11:45 PM

ed at urban armory is a nice guy.but he's a gun broker.doe's not own what he sell's and alot of time's has not seen the gun just pic's and somebody describe's it...as i said.this might not be the case on this one.hal spiro owned a r75.he is now deceased...he had alot of nice class three stuff at one time...

heck buy it whoever,and shoot the heck out of it...since it supposed to be worth more in future.a few thousands rounds won't hurt it right?? wink!!

not many shooting that stuff you know.........thats like all the classic car's not many driven anymore.they just sit in the garage under a tarp/or cover..

i knew a well to do guy back in il. went to his place.had a few million dollar car collection..back in 1995. he drove a testa -rossa.{red head}

the rest just got worked on... and waxed he now drive's with neuman........... when it came to gun's he always said just for fun.......but hopefully i won't lose my shirt.... on his car's his passion...he did not care too much..he always said thats the cost of driving them....

he's the only guy i ever knew who went to bloomington gold.with a tractor trailer and driver...to buy 8 or so vette's at a time...whatever tripped his trigger..

so i guess he had a few bean's to spend at the time...

it was never less then $300,000.00

so to him the colt monitor is a doable shooter...to the other 98% of us. a dream...

so whoever wants to write the check for $85,000.00 step to it...before this guy find's out about it.wink! take care,ron
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#32 Johnny.45

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 12:00 AM

Ron,

Thanks for the responses to my questions.

Alas I must admit the Colt Monitor is just a dream, but it is still nice to see some of these items come up for sale.
Plus I'd probably want to shoot the darn thing way more than it should be shot.

Your Car Collector friend sounds like a good guy to know.
I hope he finds the car he's always wanted. At $300K a pop He must at least have fun trying.



Thanks Again,

Johnny
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#33 philasteen

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 06:25 AM

I suspect 50K in cold hard $$$ would get that monitor.

With a 1921 Thompson approaching $30K that's not a bad deal.
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#34 TNKen

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 06:47 AM

Johnny,

I agree. For most of us, we get the thrill out of going to the range with this stuff to show it off. Me included.

Shooting the Monitor would be like my MG-42. I worry about it when I go to the range. I do it occasionally, and have replaced a bunch of the parts on it to avoid excessive wear on them. Unfortunately, unlikely that you can do that. Just don't put Indian ammo through it :-)

If your dream is a highly collectible piece, the Monitor sure fits the bill. Do it by all means if you can.

On cars, I started restoring a 63 Vette, aka the money vaccum. Eats more money than horses. Screwed by three guys who were going to complete the car but never did. Found MG's lost interest, car is about 50% restored and up for sale. A money looser for sure.

Only worries on MG's are is the bureaucrats in DC and what they could do to us.

My post was not a knock of your dream, if it came across that way, I apologize sincerely. DO IT!!!

Ken
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#35 Johnny.45

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 08:11 AM

Ken,

No problem here.

I completely agree with your overall assessment, and I did not mean to imply that I took offense to your post.
I was just trying to put some of the NFA collecting trends that I have been observing into perspective. Especially
with the high prices being paid for aftermarket items when the Real Deal items are not that far off in price.
That is the only point I was trying to make in response to your previous post.

I also think that owning and shooting an MG-42 would be a Dream come true. That MG is one of the most sought after MGs out there. Presently I have a friend who is waiting for his paperwork to process on an MG42. He actually sold some of his collection to obtain the MG42, that is how much he wanted it.

I doubt that I will obtain the Monitor, but it is still exciting to actually see one come up for sale.



Thanks ,

Johnny
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#36 Johnny.45

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 08:21 AM

philasteen,

If a $50K offer gets the Colt Monitor that would be a great Deal!

Johnny
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#37 philasteen

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 08:48 AM

Johny45, I have a MG-42 for sale, if you're interested ping me. It's an AF 1944 Mauser C&R gun.

ETA: I'm going to sell it to buy that monitor biggrin.gif
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#38 Johnny.45

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 10:12 AM

philasteen,

Thanks for the offer re: your MG42, but right now I'm really looking for another BAR.
I'll keep it in mind though. May I tell a friend about the AF 1944 Mauser C&R MG42?

BTW I think the Monitor would be a nice addition to your collection. wink.gif

Thanks,

Johnny
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#39 colt21a

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 10:27 AM

the monitor will probably sell,however not for that asking price...i could actually swing it...and that would be the only thing {gun} i could own...then have to move to a van on the river....wink! would not be worth that.........it would have to be the one swung by mr.chase in the battle with the fed's and baby face nelson{lester gillis}to be worth that kind of change..with history backing it up.

however if it doe's sell for that.....then i know of a nice 1921a with a ton of history..that should bring $170,000.00................t.g.and all!

i will dream,and do my house deal!and play with the cheap stuff...it's supposed to be fun, take care,ron
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#40 Johnny.45

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Posted 05 August 2005 - 10:51 AM

Hi Ron,

Soon we'll all be living down by the river next to you in vans and tents. laugh.gif
Or
Maybe we'll all be rich with the windfall from our NFA collections? wink.gif
Who Knows?
I hope the $170K 1921A sells soon. cool.gif
So you can take a break from it all.

I agree it is supposed to be fun. That is why I got out of the Stock Market Game.
At least it has been fun talking/writing about it.

All the Best,

Johnny
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