How come Thompsons are not going up in value?

[reichstall]

So, I am fairly new to the game about all I was willing to pay was 7500 for a Reising. I have money so that would not be an issue to pay up for something in 6 figures but why I don't shoot that many friends shoot once and done. so, what good is paying big money for a safe queen.  Yes, I like my gun no I not ready to sell. But let's looks at guns as an Invesment .Let's say the gov says no more nfa they kill people. your Invesment is gone in a blink of the eye, and they know where to come and get them do you think they will give you 40 grand before they take it? So, I think we ourselves have run up the prices for greed. Is there a answer ask the govt.

[Roland the Thompsongunner]

The bottom line is newer younger buyers want the most modern and easily adaptable guns available. Macs, M16, HK etc. They don’t want a 150 pound Maxim gun. The older guns especially ones in odd or outdated calibers will continue to slide down in desirability as time moves on. 

[colt21a]

I remember my old saying: "In The Future Only The Rich Will Own Thompsons."

 

maybe the new will be:"It is the future, We will be lucky to own anything"

[maxfaxdude]

Call me crazy...but I love all of it. And all machineguns...the good, the bad and the ugly.   The history, learning about them, the "investment" part of it and shooting them.  I just wish they weren't so darn expensive and that we could open the registry again.  Maybe someday, but I'm not counting on it.  I am glad for what I have and that our country allows civilian machinegun ownership.

[Rekraps]

It also seems to me that there a tons of TSMG for sale at any given time. Mostly WH units, but the average person does not know the difference and  so that may be holding the prices down.

[johnsonlmg41]

22 hours ago, reichstall said:

So, I am fairly new to the game about all I was willing to pay was 7500 for a Reising. I have money so that would not be an issue to pay up for something in 6 figures but why I don't shoot that many friends shoot once and done. so, what good is paying big money for a safe queen.  Yes, I like my gun no I not ready to sell. But let's looks at guns as an Invesment .Let's say the gov says no more nfa they kill people. your Invesment is gone in a blink of the eye, and they know where to come and get them do you think they will give you 40 grand before they take it? So, I think we ourselves have run up the prices for greed. Is there a answer ask the govt.

Actually statistically, transferable NFA guns don't kill people and now that the people that have them have means, it's even more unlikely anyone will come for them.  As for investments they are coming for your bitcoin and 401K's because that's where the money is and 401K's where there is "racial inequity".    Then comes the "means testing" as to whether or not you "need" certain things or benefits.  

As to values on Thompsons,  the market ebbs and flows, but the guns rank very low on the shooter scale and relative to the registry numbers, they are not rare or scarce, but generally desirable.  I predicted sears would overtake RR HK's 15 years ago, and it's only a matter of time before UZI bolts overtake RR uzi's.  I've been watching trend lines on alternative investments for 20 years and have done pretty well. 

 

[colt21a]

We all have done well if you are in it long enough.And we all some day just go away also.

so it's best to enjoy what you have while you have it....

[reichstall]

Sorry it has taken a couple days to get back. As per someone saying they will never take your guns. Ny now has a safe act ammo safety check to buy ammo and a lot of other stuff 20 years ago that would never happen. So yes, I do think there is a chance.

[colt21a]

When i retired i gambled what to keep and what to sell. i held it at $25 g i could afford to lose. So at that it still remains. when if anything happens and the gnashing of teeth and whining of i lost this> they took millions or maybe only hundreds of thousands. It won't be me.

some put a lot of guns in a certain basket of guns.a GUN BASKET!! Know a few in  town who are sitting on well over 2 million maybe 3 million more in the gun stuff. And i asked will you be wiped out if its all gone. They say well heck yeah about 70% of my wealth.

we all have a ceiling of what we can afford to lose.

and i feel for a long time, some maybe never gave that a thought with rising price and values. since they bought on the down low.

and that has increased over time.So now its time to enjoy it. And not worry...And if you do you better start selling now.

and have that comfort mark of what you can afford to lose...without a sweat.

[Doug Quaid]

On 3/12/2024 at 8:48 AM, reichstall said:

So, I am fairly new to the game about all I was willing to pay was 7500 for a Reising. I have money so that would not be an issue to pay up for something in 6 figures but why I don't shoot that many friends shoot once and done. so, what good is paying big money for a safe queen.  Yes, I like my gun no I not ready to sell. But let's looks at guns as an Invesment .Let's say the gov says no more nfa they kill people. your Invesment is gone in a blink of the eye, and they know where to come and get them do you think they will give you 40 grand before they take it? So, I think we ourselves have run up the prices for greed. Is there a answer ask the govt.

I have to disagree with you about the "greed" thing.   I see this kind of comment a lot with regard to collectables, and it's more of a expression of exasperation than anything else.

Any economist will tell you that the price of ANYTHING, including collectables, is 100% determined by two things: SUPPLY and DEMAND.  

With most collectables, unless you have a time machine the supply is FIXED, so the only thing that can change the price is demand.  And demand comes from BUYERS, not sellers.  

Back in the 1980s, you could buy a Tucker 1948 automobile for about $40k.  

Then they made a really popular movie about Preston Tucker.  AND THE PRICE FOR A TUCKER WENT NUCLEAR.  Now they are $2 million.

Did the Tucker owners make the price go up?   Or was it the people who didn't own one who fought against each other at auctions like a pack of rabid dogs?  Because they saw the movie and just HAD TO have one.

I recently bought one of those Cox 010 engines off of Ebay.  The seller started the auction at 1 cent.  It sold for $275. 

I didn't voluntarily pay $275, I HAD to because the next lowest bidder was $270.  And the next lowest bidder below him was $265.  Me and the other bidders set the price, not the seller.

Some day in the future, when all the Baby Boomers die off, that engine is going to be worth $25.  Because it's not useful for anything and kids today fly electric planes.  They don't know a Cox engine from a Schmox engine.

Sellers can ask any amount of money they want, but the guy who forks over the money is the one who sets the price.

I can't prove it, but I suspect that the reason that MG prices went to the moon is a.) youtube videos and b.) millions of baby boomers paying off their mortgage and having a crapton of money to spend.



 

Edited March 18 by Doug Quaid

[Doug Quaid]

On 3/12/2024 at 10:21 PM, maxfaxdude said:

Call me crazy...but I love all of it. And all machineguns...the good, the bad and the ugly.   The history, learning about them, the "investment" part of it and shooting them.  I just wish they weren't so darn expensive and that we could open the registry again.  Maybe someday, but I'm not counting on it.  I am glad for what I have and that our country allows civilian machinegun ownership.

The only way the registry of transferrables will ever open up is if a whole bunch of politicians make a massive political push to make it happen.

Because a repeal of the existing law would require a Bill to pass both the House and Senate and then survive a presidential veto.

Picture this headline on the front page of the newspaper:

HUNDREDS OF POLITICIANS ACROSS THE USA DEMAND ACTION!  "WE MUST HAVE LOTS AND LOTS OF FULLY AUTOMATIC M16 ASSAULT RIFLES FOR SALE TO ANYONE WHO WANTS ONE, FOR ONLY $500!" SHOUTED SENATOR TED CRUZ ON THE FLOOR OF THE SENATE.

The only way that the politicians will go to the mat like that is if MILLIONS of average voters like housewives and old retirees demand it.

This nation is ruled by a gigantic, humongous wad of centrist voters.  That's why we have close elections.   

If you asked 100 people at random if lots and lots of M16s should be available for sale to the public for $500 each, 90% of them would say NO.

I honestly believe that if MGs weren't so nosebleed expensive, they would be completely illegal now.  My guess is that the Firearm Owners Protection Act of 1986 actually saved MG ownership by restricting it to limited number of people, now mostly rich guys.  

Your neighbors cannot keep you from owning guns, but they can do a real number on what guns you are allowed to own.  If you doubt that, ask your pals in New Jersey about it.



 

[Doug Quaid]

17 hours ago, reichstall said:

Sorry it has taken a couple days to get back. As per someone saying they will never take your guns. Ny now has a safe act ammo safety check to buy ammo and a lot of other stuff 20 years ago that would never happen. So yes, I do think there is a chance.

There is always a chance that just about anything can happen.  I don't worry about it.

I'm not cheap, but I'm really careful with money.  I drive base-model Ford cars until they are about 10 years old.

 I live in a mcmansion in a rich area.  Every house on my street has $100k worth of cars in the driveway, slowly turning into $10k.  

If losing all that money on car depreciation doesn't bother them, then I'm not going to worry about the Democrats showing up at my house and taking my MGs away.  If it happens, it happens.  If it doesn't, it doesn't.

I figure that I saved enough money on cars by driving them until they are dead to pay for anything I lose on MGs.

That being said, GUNS ARE NOT A GOOD SINGULAR INVESTMENT, for the same reason investing a lot of money in any one thing is a bad idea - there is not enough diversification.

If you invest your retirement money into a S&P 500 fund, you will out-perform 85% of all other investors.    Because the S&P 500 fund lacks the flaws that most people voluntarily put into their own investment picks.   One of the major flaws being not enough diversification.

Putting all your eggs in one basket is a bad idea from a statistical standpoint.   Not because the eggs will be confiscated, but because the eggs might underperform other investments.

Back in 2008 or so, the stock market crashed hard and everyone did the opposite of what they were supposed to do - instead of waiting out the dip and buying more stocks at a discount, they sold at a huge loss and drove the price of gold up to $2,000 per oz.  The human brain makes emotional decisions.  A lot of times they are not-so-wise decisions. 

The way to avoid that kind of pitfall is to do what is most sound from a statistical standpoint, even though it might not feel as good as something else.  

Edited March 18 by Doug Quaid

[skoda]

7 hours ago, Doug Quaid said:

I have to disagree with you about the "greed" thing.   I see this kind of comment a lot with regard to collectables, and it's more of a expression of exasperation than anything else.

Any economist will tell you that the price of ANYTHING, including collectables, is 100% determined by two things: SUPPLY and DEMAND.  

With most collectables, unless you have a time machine the supply is FIXED, so the only thing that can change the price is demand.  And demand comes from BUYERS, not sellers.  

Back in the 1980s, you could buy a Tucker 1948 automobile for about $40k.  

Then they made a really popular movie about Preston Tucker.  AND THE PRICE FOR A TUCKER WENT NUCLEAR.  Now they are $2 million.

Did the Tucker owners make the price go up?   Or was it the people who didn't own one who fought against each other at auctions like a pack of rabid dogs?  Because they saw the movie and just HAD TO have one.

I recently bought one of those Cox 010 engines off of Ebay.  The seller started the auction at 1 cent.  It sold for $275. 

I didn't voluntarily pay $275, I HAD to because the next lowest bidder was $270.  And the next lowest bidder below him was $265.  Me and the other bidders set the price, not the seller.

Some day in the future, when all the Baby Boomers die off, that engine is going to be worth $25.  Because it's not useful for anything and kids today fly electric planes.  They don't know a Cox engine from a Schmox engine.

Sellers can ask any amount of money they want, but the guy who forks over the money is the one who sets the price.

I can't prove it, but I suspect that the reason that MG prices went to the moon is a.) youtube videos and b.) millions of baby boomers paying off their mortgage and having a crapton of money to spend.



 

You're right Doug. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the movie Saving Private Ryan caused a spike in the prices of military Thompsons (non-Colts and West Hurleys) but after a while the spike hit a plateau and many years later we are still at that level today. 

You're spot on with demand setting the price more than supply but I think the reason the military Thompsons didn't go down with reduced demand is that sellers had mid $20k in their minds as a price that their gun was worth and they were 1) not going to sell for less than that and  2) they didn't need to sell so they just held onto their guns until they found a buyer. So guns have sat at the mid $20k range for a long time waiting for buyers that only occasionally come along. Given another surge in demand I think that military Thompsons will languish where they are until the lower end of the MG hobby (Reisings, MACs, STENs, etc.) starts pushing the Thompsons up from below. 

[Doug Quaid]

20 hours ago, skoda said:

You're right Doug. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the movie Saving Private Ryan caused a spike in the prices of military Thompsons (non-Colts and West Hurleys) but after a while the spike hit a plateau and many years later we are still at that level today. 

You're spot on with demand setting the price more than supply but I think the reason the military Thompsons didn't go down with reduced demand is that sellers had mid $20k in their minds as a price that their gun was worth and they were 1) not going to sell for less than that and  2) they didn't need to sell so they just held onto their guns until they found a buyer. So guns have sat at the mid $20k range for a long time waiting for buyers that only occasionally come along. Given another surge in demand I think that military Thompsons will languish where they are until the lower end of the MG hobby (Reisings, MACs, STENs, etc.) starts pushing the Thompsons up from below. 

I find it completely bizarre that Thompsons are lagging behind M16s, because Thompsons are an ICON in the gun world.

It like if 1971 Hemi Cudas were suddenly a bargain car.  As big block Mustangs double in price.  It just makes no sense.  

BY THE WAY, GUYS, I'M NOT EVEN 10% AS OPINIONATED AS I SOUND ON INTERNET FORUMS.   I'm simply too lazy to pad everything out with graciousness.  It takes too much typing.

In any case, what I write here is just my 2 cents worth of BS, I welcome other opinions.
 

[Got Uzi]

Look at the cost of ammuntion, the cost of parts, and the fact the Thompson is 45acp only (unless you can get a 22lr kit) where as the M16 can be a 22lr, 9mm, 223/556/300BLK, and even a belt fed.  No issues with parts supplies either.  Thats why the M16 has passed the USGI Thompson in price.

 

Iconic is one thing fro guys with money and can afford to have multiple MGs, but for the guy who only can afford one, he wants the best bang for his buck and the most versatile platform....or is that just my hangover pain talking?

Edited March 19 by Got Uzi

[Rekraps]

1 hour ago, Doug Quaid said:

I find it completely bizarre that Thompsons are lagging behind M16s, because Thompsons are an ICON in the gun world.

It like if 1971 Hemi Cudas were suddenly a bargain car.  As big block Mustangs double in price.  It just makes no sense.  

BY THE WAY, GUYS, I'M NOT EVEN 10% AS OPINIONATED AS I SOUND ON INTERNET FORUMS.   I'm simply too lazy to pad everything out with graciousness.  It takes too much typing.

In any case, what I write here is just my 2 cents worth of BS, I welcome other opinions.
 

Hey Doug, I never thought you were brash. Always polite but pointed. No issues there.

I thought about this a bit yesterday and it's like the muscle car market, those of us who grew up with Chevelle's , Cuda's, Corvette's, Mustangs etc. are growing old the the new guard has other interests! There will always be a market for stuff, it just depends on who is looking!

[1gewehr]

Popular entertainment has a huge effect on the market.  Does everyone (us old farts) remember the huge jump in Thompson and BAR prices after Saving Private Ryan and Bank of Brothers came out?  The John Wick movies have caused a jump in M16 and MP5 prices with each release.

When another blockbuster WWII infantry movies comes out, we'll probably see a price jump.

Of course, since they are all above my price range now, I'll have to be satisfied with my M1A1.  :-)

 

[Merry Ploughboy]

A couple of thoughts:

For whatever reason, delayed blow back 9mm is all the rage right now.  The MP5 is an OEM delayed blowback, and for the M16 there're several options available.  With the TSMG, while the '21 and' 28 are delayed blowback, they are .45 ACP; and the M1/M1A1, is of course, a not delayed .45 ACP SMG.

Very few WWII and even Korean War veterans are still alive, and those that are are probably not shooting much any longer.  The TSMG (M1/M1A1) saw only limited use in the Vietnam War possibly the Korean War, and even those vets are getting up in years.  Besides most vets from Vietnam on through today, are familiar with the M16, and in some cases the MP5, so such machine guns likely have more nostalgic value than TSMGs.

MHO, YMMV, etc.

[dalbert]

1 hour ago, Got Uzi said:

Look at the cost of ammuntion, the cost of parts, and the fact the Thompson is 45acp only (unless you can get a 22lr kit) where as the M16 can be a 22lr, 9mm, 223/556/300BLK, and even a belt fed.  No issues with parts supplies either.  Thats why the M16 has passed the USGI Thompson in price.

 

Iconic is one thing fro guys with money and can afford to have multiple MGs, but for the guy who only can afford one, he wants the best bang for his buck and the most versatile platform....or is that just my hangover pain talking?

I think that is pretty well stated, John.

I just want to say that I don’t think Thompson prices have reduced; they just have not appreciated as quickly as some of their counterparts lately.  It’s all a matter of perspective in time.  A Colt Thompson I considered 15 years ago for $29K would be around $45K today.  An AR conversion that was $12K 15 years ago is $25K today.  Better rate of return on the AR conversion, but not really by much; about 3% vs. 5%, compounded annually.  I do not recommend buying MG’s as investments, though looking back, they have turned out to be very solid investments over time.  Buy them because you like them and want to own them.

David

[Got Uzi]

Thank you Dave, finally someone sees the logic in the market and isn't being one sided on things base solely on what he/she/they prefer, but looking at things as a whole.

 

The whole "buying as investments" is a main reason why the cost of MG's has gone so high....then people complain about the cost and want to cut corners to have their jollies....like becoming an 07/02 just to get or make post samples to play with that have no actual use as what they are intended to be-sales sample, not play toys...oh wait....I'm just angry, bitter and condensing......

[Outsider]

14 minutes ago, Got Uzi said:

like becoming an 07/02 just to get or make post samples to play with that have no actual use as what they are intended to be-sales sample, not play toys...oh wait....I'm just angry, bitter and condensing......

LOL

[Rekraps]

10 hours ago, Got Uzi said:

Thank you Dave, finally someone sees the logic in the market and isn't being one sided on things base solely on what he/she/they prefer, but looking at things as a whole.

 

The whole "buying as investments" is a main reason why the cost of MG's has gone so high....then people complain about the cost and want to cut corners to have their jollies....like becoming an 07/02 just to get or make post samples to play with that have no actual use as what they are intended to be-sales sample, not play toys...oh wait....I'm just angry, bitter and condensing......

Have a nice Whisky my friend!

[cbmott]

I’ve asked a few friends who might even entertain the idea of full auto’s and M-16 or AK variants top the list. Parts availability, ammo, weapon system knowledge and ease of use are big drivers and drop the Thompson down on that list. Even more so if they plan to buy just one MG and yet even more if it’s a DIAS.  Ruben even tried to convince me to buy an M-16 variant as my first MG instead of a Thompson and he was pretty adamant about it for all the reasons above.  Add in the price tag and those same friends are content with their SBR semi Thompsons when they have other bills and interests.  

As for the coolness factor, it plays into it some of course, but above 10K and your average millennial (which most are well into their 30’s) isn’t generally interested because they feel like they can get more bang for their buck with other things. A semi auto at a much lower price point that will look super cool after SBRing it can scratch that itch.  I’m that way with the MP-5’s which have a higher “coolness” factor these days than Thompson’s (the Modern Warfare games ensured that). A sear/pack/ receiver are not worth the money to me when I can go on a vacation with the family serval times over. I bet that if another movie (or video game) that peaks folks interest in Thompson’s comes out you may see a price increase but I bet more would flock to the semi auto market and SBR their guns.

[Rekraps]

9 hours ago, cbmott said:

I’ve asked a few friends who might even entertain the idea of full auto’s and M-16 or AK variants top the list. Parts availability, ammo, weapon system knowledge and ease of use are big drivers and drop the Thompson down on that list. Even more so if they plan to buy just one MG and yet even more if it’s a DIAS.  Ruben even tried to convince me to buy an M-16 variant as my first MG instead of a Thompson and he was pretty adamant about it for all the reasons above.  Add in the price tag and those same friends are content with their SBR semi Thompsons when they have other bills and interests.  

As for the coolness factor, it plays into it some of course, but above 10K and your average millennial (which most are well into their 30’s) isn’t generally interested because they feel like they can get more bang for their buck with other things. A semi auto at a much lower price point that will look super cool after SBRing it can scratch that itch.  I’m that way with the MP-5’s which have a higher “coolness” factor these days than Thompson’s (the Modern Warfare games ensured that). A sear/pack/ receiver are not worth the money to me when I can go on a vacation with the family serval times over. I bet that if another movie (or video game) that peaks folks interest in Thompson’s comes out you may see a price increase but I bet more would flock to the semi auto market and SBR their guns.

I think you are spot on. Like my post about antique cars, as the population ages, their tastes change.